SAIC Group (600104): SAIC Group Sales Comments: No

SAIC Group (600104): SAIC Group Sales Comments: No

Event: The company released May sales data: a total of 48 sales.

10,000 vehicles, a reduction of 16% a year.

Among them, SAIC Volkswagen’s wholesale sales were 15.

40,000 vehicles, down 10% a year; SAIC-GM sales of 14.

10,000武汉夜生活网 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 9%; SAIC-GM-Wuling sales of 110,000 vehicles, each decrease of 34%; SAIC passenger car sales of 550,000, a decrease of 6%.

National Six switched the painful period and fully entered the destocking cycle.

Since the auto market has been sluggish this year, sales of SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM have both shifted to varying degrees.

The implementation of National VI is imminent. The OEMs are under pressure to remove inventory from National V vehicles. SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM have fully entered the destocking stage.

It is expected that the implementation of National VI will begin and promote the implementation of automobile consumption regulations, and sales volume is expected to stabilize and rebound in the second half of the year.

The decline in independent brands has narrowed, and 杭州夜网 sales have set a bottom and 5G is building a dream.

SAIC Passenger Cars is an outstanding leader among its own brands, and has successfully created RX5 star models and Marvel X pure electric vehicle benchmarking products.

New products have not been launched in 2019, but from the perspective of new car planning, Vision-i may have the characteristics to lead a new wave of consumption.

At the beginning of policy support, passenger cars returned to the beginning of the cycle.

The three ministries and commissions issued an opinion draft on the promotion of automobile consumption. The core lies in increasing the number of incremental license plates in cities with restricted purchases and no longer increasing the number of cities with restricted purchases. It is expected to drive automobile consumption in first- and second-tier cities.

And each OEM actively cooperates with the policy of auto going to the countryside, or it will effectively promote the car purchase demand in the third and fourth tier cities.

Automobile consumption will gradually improve, and the distribution network of leading car companies will be rich, which is expected to benefit fully.

Investment suggestion: We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 and 2020 will be 37.8 billion and 41.5 billion US dollars respectively, and the current dynamic estimates are 7 respectively.

5, 6.

9 times.

We give the company a 10x dynamic estimate for 2019, corresponding to a target market value of 3780 trillion, and maintain a “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: Passenger car sales are lower than expected; new car sales are sluggish